Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-4 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 4-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 119–114 · win probability POR 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
POR 5, NO 1 · 2026-27 so far
PORBigPOR offense vs NO defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallShooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2
PORSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, NO 76.4%
Context
Tempo
About 106 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points
PORSmallThree-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 51.5% and 32.8% of their shots
NOSmallHome court
NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, POR 3-0 away
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, NO 35.3. Allowed: POR 27.8, NO 30.6
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, NO 17.4%. Forced: POR 14.8%, NO 16.3%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8
Even
NO offense vs POR defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -5.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.5
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 119.3 · NO 114.2
Win probability
POR 64%
1st half
Spread
POR -3.0
Total
116.8
Projected score
POR 59.9 · NO 56.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
POR 7–11 NONO leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 2 meetings · POR 9-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025-26 | NO 106 @ POR 118 | POR -5.5 | POR W |
| Jan 2, 2025-26 | POR 122 @ NO 109 | NO +3.5 | POR W |
| Dec 11, 2025-26 | POR 120 @ NO 143 | NO +4.5 | NO W |
| Nov 12, 2025-26 | POR 125 @ NO 117 | NO +8.5 | NO W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | POR 119 @ NO 100 | NO -1.5 | POR W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Trail Blazers has the better starters
Position by position: Trail Blazers 3, Pelicans 1, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterPelicans
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
←PORBig
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
←PORSmall
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
=Even
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
→NOSmall
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
←PORSmall
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
Trail BlazersBetterPelicans
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
←PORBig
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
=Even
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
←PORBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
=Even
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
←PORBig
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4NO119.7 #7Points per possession
POR1.16 #5NO1.10 #15Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14NO108.0 #2Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4NO55.1 #93-point %
POR35.3 #12NO31.2 #253-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1NO32.8 #30Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3NO35.3 #4Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9NO17.4 #26Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14NO24.3 #25Assists per game
POR26.2 #17NO25.5 #21Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10NO117.8 #24Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10NO1.09 #16Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8NO54.2 #21Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8NO30.5 #5Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20NO16.3 #10Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3NO76.4 #6Steals per game
POR8.6 #18NO13.7 #1Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21NO4.8 #16| POR | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 119.7 #7 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.10 #15 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 108.0 #2 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 55.1 #9 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 31.2 #25 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 32.8 #30 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 35.3 #4 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 17.4 #26 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.3 #25 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 25.5 #21 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 117.8 #24 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #16 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.2 #21 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.5 #5 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 16.3 #10 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 76.4 #6 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 13.7 #1 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 4.8 #16 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.