Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 6, 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and 76ers
OKC	This season	PHI
4-2	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 109–109 · win probability OKC 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

OKC 2, PHI 4 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

PHI offense vs OKC defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, PHI 70.8%

PHISmall

OKC offense vs PHI defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 35.8% and 39.5% of their shots

PHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, PHI 17.0%

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, PHI 28.7. Allowed: OKC 23.4, PHI 28.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ WSH	W132–111LO
Jan 10	@ ORL	W113–108LU
Jan 13	vs HOU	L98–119LU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	vs MIA	L109–119LU
Jan 10	@ TOR	W115–102WU
Jan 12	vs WSH	W153–131WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 5–5 PHISeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 4 meetings · OKC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	OKC 123 @ PHI 103	PHI +16.5	OKC W
Dec 28, 2025-26	PHI 104 @ OKC 129	OKC -14.5	OKC W
Mar 19, 2024-25	PHI 100 @ OKC 133	OKC -12.5	OKC W
Jan 14, 2024-25	OKC 118 @ PHI 102	PHI +15.5	OKC W
Apr 2, 2023-24	OKC 105 @ PHI 109	PHI -2.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 2, 76ers 1, even 2

ThunderBetter76ers

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

Even

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

ThunderBetter76ers

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

PHISmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

PHISmall

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

PHISmall

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

PHI5.0 #14

OKC		PHI
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.06 #22
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
30.9 #26	3-point %	34.0 #20
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
21.7 #29	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.6 #7
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

76ers

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

76ers