Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 6, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#26UTAHJazz

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Nets
UTAH	This season	BKN
1-5	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BKN 114–114 · win probability BKN 50%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

UTAH 0, BKN 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 41.7% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, BKN 15.9%

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, BKN 32.9. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, BKN 33.5

Even

UTAH offense vs BKN defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

BKN offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, BKN 77.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	@ TOR	L127–143LO
Jan 10	@ DET	W131–129WO
Jan 12	vs CHI	L126–128WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs MIA	L110–126LO
Jan 9	vs HOU	L96–120LU
Jan 11	@ IND	W98–90WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 5–5 BKNSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 30, 2025-26	BKN 109 @ UTAH 99	UTAH -3.5	BKN W
Dec 4, 2025-26	UTAH 123 @ BKN 110	BKN +5.5	UTAH W
Jan 12, 2024-25	BKN 111 @ UTAH 112	UTAH -3.5	BKN W
Dec 21, 2024-25	UTAH 105 @ BKN 94	BKN -1.5	UTAH W
Jan 29, 2023-24	UTAH 114 @ BKN 147	BKN -0.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Jazz 1, Nets 1, even 3

JazzBetterNets

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

Even

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

Even

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

BKNSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

UTAHSmall

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

JazzBetterNets

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

Even

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

BKNBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

BKN4.7 #17

UTAH		BKN
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.03 #29
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
32.6 #23	3-point %	35.1 #15
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
26.2 #19	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
6.2 #29	Steals per game	9.0 #14
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Nets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Nets