Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 4, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Pacers
CHI	This season	IND
1-5	Record	2-5
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IND 122–117 · win probability IND 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

CHI 3, IND 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHIBig

CHI offense vs IND defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

INDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

INDBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 47.9% and 43.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

IND offense vs CHI defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

INDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, IND 14.8%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, IND 14.9%

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, IND 72.7%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, IND 31.2. Allowed: CHI 33.5, IND 32.1

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	vs MIL	W132–125WO
Jan 7	@ SAC	L110–126LU
Jan 9	@ GS	W130–124WO

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 6	@ SA	L119–134WO
Jan 7	@ ATL	W129–124WO
Jan 9	vs MIL	L102–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CHI 8–12 INDIND leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · IND has won the last 4 meetings · CHI 7-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	IND 145 @ CHI 126	CHI -3.5	IND W
Jan 28, 2025-26	CHI 110 @ IND 113	IND +1.5	IND W
Dec 5, 2025-26	IND 120 @ CHI 105	CHI -4.5	IND W
Nov 29, 2025-26	CHI 101 @ IND 103	IND +2.5	IND W
Mar 10, 2024-25	IND 103 @ CHI 121	CHI +3.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Pacers 2, even 3

BullsBetterPacers

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

Even

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

Even

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

INDBig

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

INDBig

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

BullsBetterPacers

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHIBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

INDSmall

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

INDBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

IND4.0 #26

CHI		IND
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.10 #17
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
28.1 #30	3-point %	34.1 #18
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
24.3 #25	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
8.7 #17	Steals per game	6.9 #27
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Pacers

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Pacers