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NBA · Sun, Dec 27

Hawks @ Spurs

Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
#14ATLHawks
@
#3SASpurs
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ATLThis seasonSA
3-4Record4-2
3-4ATS2-4
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 120–110 · win probability SA 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

ATL 2, SA 5 · 2026-27 so far
SABig
SA offense vs ATL defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
SABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, SA 24.5. Allowed: ATL 32.1, SA 21.7
SASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, SA 75.8%
Context
Schedule so far
ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ATLSmall
Three-pointers
ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 44.7% and 39.0% of their shots
ATLSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, SA 13.1%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, SA 15.7%
SASmall
Home court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, ATL 2-2 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
ATL offense vs SA defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -9.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.6
Model edge—
Projected score
ATL 110.1 · SA 119.6
Win probability
SA 75%
1st half
Spread
SA -5.2
Total
115.0
Projected score
ATL 54.9 · SA 60.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 1, Spurs 3, even 1
HawksBetterSpurs
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
SASmall
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
ATLSmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
SASmall
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
HawksBetterSpurs
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Even
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
SABig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestATL betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ATLSA
Scoring
116.3 #13Points per game117.3 #12
1.10 #16Points per possession1.12 #10
105.6 #7Pace (possessions)104.3 #11
Shooting
52.6 #19Effective FG%53.3 #16
32.8 #223-point %34.9 #17
44.7 #113-point attempt rate39.0 #24
23.4 #26Free throw rate24.5 #24
Possessions
13.8 #4Turnover rate13.1 #2
27.1 #18Offensive rebound rate27.2 #16
30.7 #1Assists per game27.5 #9
Defense
115.4 #19Points allowed110.2 #12
1.10 #17Points allowed per possession1.06 #6
54.5 #22Opponent effective FG%52.1 #11
31.9 #7Opponent 3-point %37.3 #23
18.3 #2Turnovers forced15.7 #14
70.9 #19Defensive rebound rate75.8 #7
9.4 #8Steals per game9.2 #10
3.7 #29Blocks per game7.0 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.