San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Spurs and Wizards
SA	This season	WSH
4-2	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 120–109 · win probability SA 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

SA 4, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

WSH offense vs SA defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

SA offense vs WSH defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

SABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, WSH 68.0%

Context

Schedule so far

SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: SA 15.7%, WSH 13.3%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SA 24.5, WSH 34.2. Allowed: SA 21.7, WSH 21.8

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 39.0% and 37.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, SA 2-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SA away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ MIN	W121–111LO
Jan 6	vs IND	W134–119LO
Jan 8	vs MEM	W123–98WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs LAC	L106–110WU
Jan 5	vs LAL	L101–120LU
Jan 7	vs OKC	L111–132WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SA 7–3 WSHSA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 4 meetings · SA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	SA 124 @ WSH 113	WSH +15.5	WSH W
Dec 18, 2025-26	WSH 94 @ SA 119	SA -15.5	SA W
Feb 10, 2024-25	SA 131 @ WSH 121	WSH +10.5	WSH W
Nov 13, 2024-25	WSH 130 @ SA 139	SA -9.5	WSH W
Jan 29, 2023-24	WSH 118 @ SA 113	SA -3.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 3, Wizards 0, even 2

SpursBetterWizards

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

SABig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

SABig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

SASmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

SpursBetterWizards

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

SABig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

SABig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

SABig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

SABig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

SABig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSA betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SA117.3 #12

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

SA1.12 #10

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

SA104.3 #11

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

SA53.3 #16

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

SA34.9 #17

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

SA39.0 #24

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

SA24.5 #24

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

SA13.1 #2

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

SA27.2 #16

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

SA27.5 #9

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

SA110.2 #12

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

SA1.06 #6

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

SA52.1 #11

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

SA37.3 #23

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

SA15.7 #14

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

SA75.8 #7

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

SA9.2 #10

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

SA7.0 #1

WSH5.3 #9

SA		WSH
Scoring
117.3 #12	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.12 #10	Points per possession	1.08 #19
104.3 #11	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
34.9 #17	3-point %	29.3 #29
39.0 #24	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
24.5 #24	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
13.1 #2	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
27.2 #16	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
27.5 #9	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
110.2 #12	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.06 #6	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
52.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
37.3 #23	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.7 #14	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
75.8 #7	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.2 #10	Steals per game	7.2 #24
7.0 #1	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Spurs @ Wizards

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Spurs

Wizards

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Spurs

Wizards