Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 112–109 · win probability DET 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 221.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
POR 3, DET 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBigPOR offense vs DET defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, DET 72.8%
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmallDET offense vs POR defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, DET 28.9. Allowed: POR 27.8, DET 28.1
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, DET 15.6%. Forced: POR 14.8%, DET 17.1%
Even
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 51.5% and 43.3% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -3.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model221.7
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 109.3 · DET 112.4
Win probability
DET 59%
1st half
Spread
DET -1.6
Total
111.3
Projected score
POR 54.8 · DET 56.4
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
POR 5–5 DETSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 5 meetings · POR 7-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025-26 | DET 110 @ POR 102 | POR +6.5 | DET W |
| Dec 5, 2025-26 | POR 116 @ DET 122 | DET -8.5 | POR W |
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | DET 119 @ POR 112 | POR +3.5 | DET W |
| Jan 6, 2024-25 | POR 115 @ DET 118 | DET -6.5 | POR W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | DET 128 @ POR 122 | POR -4.5 | DET W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Trail Blazers 2, Pistons 2, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterPistons
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
←PORBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
→DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
=Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
→DETBig
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
←PORBig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
Trail BlazersBetterPistons
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
→DETSmall
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
←PORSmall
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
←PORSmall
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
→DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4DET109.8 #21Points per possession
POR1.16 #5DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4DET53.1 #173-point %
POR35.3 #12DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14DET27.2 #17Assists per game
POR26.2 #17DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3DET72.8 #15Steals per game
POR8.6 #18DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21DET6.7 #4| POR | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.