Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 6:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Kings
UTAH	This season	SAC
1-5	Record	0-6
1-5	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 120–118 · win probability UTAH 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTAH has more of the edges

UTAH 3, SAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

UTAHBig

UTAH offense vs SAC defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, SAC 73.7%

SACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, SAC 14.6%

UTAHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 41.7% and 38.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, SAC 26.4. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, SAC 31.2

Even

SAC offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	vs NY	L117–134LO
Jan 1	vs BOS	L119–129LO
Jan 2	@ OKC	L111–146LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs PHI	L118–139LO
Dec 31	vs BKN	L99–116LU
Jan 2	@ PHX	L103–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

UTAH 7–12 SACSAC leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 9-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 15, 2025-26	UTAH 111 @ SAC 116	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Feb 11, 2025-26	SAC 93 @ UTAH 121	UTAH -5.5	UTAH W
Nov 28, 2025-26	SAC 119 @ UTAH 128	UTAH -2.5	UTAH W
Oct 24, 2025-26	UTAH 104 @ SAC 105	SAC -6.5	UTAH W
Feb 26, 2024-25	SAC 118 @ UTAH 101	UTAH +9.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Jazz 2, Kings 2, even 1

JazzBetterKings

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

Even

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

SACSmall

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

SACSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

UTAHSmall

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

JazzBetterKings

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

UTAHSmall

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

Even

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

SACBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

SAC2.3 #30

UTAH		SAC
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.03 #28
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
32.6 #23	3-point %	30.4 #27
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
26.2 #19	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
6.2 #29	Steals per game	8.0 #21
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Kings

What could decide it: UTAH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Kings

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Kings