Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 29, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Kings
PHI	This season	SAC
6-1	Record	0-6
4-3	ATS	1-5
2-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 119–110 · win probability PHI 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 6, SAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

SAC offense vs PHI defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, SAC 14.6%

PHIBig

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 39.5% and 38.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

PHISmall

PHI offense vs SAC defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, SAC 73.7%

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, SAC 26.4. Allowed: PHI 28.5, SAC 31.2

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	@ PHX	W109–103WU
Jan 1	@ MIL	W127–116LO
Jan 4	vs ATL	L116–125LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	vs BKN	L99–116LU
Jan 2	@ PHX	L103–114LU
Jan 3	@ OKC	L99–113WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 8–2 SACPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings · PHI 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	PHI 139 @ SAC 118	SAC +2.5	PHI W
Jan 29, 2025-26	SAC 111 @ PHI 113	PHI -9.5	SAC W
Jan 29, 2024-25	SAC 104 @ PHI 117	PHI +8.5	PHI W
Jan 1, 2024-25	PHI 107 @ SAC 113	SAC -6.5	PHI W
Mar 25, 2023-24	PHI 96 @ SAC 108	SAC -7.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 4, Kings 0, even 1

76ersBetterKings

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

Even

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

PHIBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

76ersBetterKings

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PHISmall

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

SACBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

SAC2.3 #30

PHI		SAC
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.03 #28
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
34.0 #20	3-point %	30.4 #27
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
25.1 #22	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.6 #7	Steals per game	8.0 #21
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Kings

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Kings

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Kings