Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 29, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Trail Blazers
BKN	This season	POR
1-5	Record	4-1
3-3	ATS	3-2
3-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 120–104 · win probability POR 88%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

BKN 0, POR 8 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

PORBig

BKN offense vs POR defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

PORBig

POR offense vs BKN defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

PORBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, POR 35.9. Allowed: BKN 33.5, POR 27.8

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 48.0% and 51.5% of their shots

PORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, POR 14.6%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, POR 14.8%

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

PORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, POR 77.3%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	@ SAC	W116–99WU
Jan 2	@ GS	L106–109WU
Jan 4	@ UTAH	W109–99WU

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	vs BOS	L94–102WU
Jan 4	vs NY	L97–127LO
Jan 6	@ NO	W118–106WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 4–6 PORPOR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 3 meetings · BKN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	BKN 99 @ POR 134	POR -15.5	POR W
Mar 16, 2025-26	POR 114 @ BKN 95	BKN +10.5	POR W
Feb 28, 2024-25	POR 121 @ BKN 102	BKN +1.5	POR W
Jan 14, 2024-25	BKN 132 @ POR 114	POR -3.5	BKN W
Jan 17, 2023-24	BKN 103 @ POR 105	POR +5.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Trail Blazers 4, even 0

NetsBetterTrail Blazers

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

PORBig

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

PORSmall

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

PORBig

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

PORBig

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

NetsBetterTrail Blazers

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

PORBig

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PORBig

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

PORBig

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

POR4.2 #21

BKN		POR
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	120.6 #4
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.16 #5
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
35.1 #15	3-point %	35.3 #12
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
22.8 #28	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
9.0 #14	Steals per game	8.6 #18
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Trail Blazers