Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Trail Blazers
BOS	This season	POR
5-1	Record	4-1
3-3	ATS	3-2
2-4	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 112–111 · win probability POR 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

BOS 2, POR 4 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, POR 77.3%

PORSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, POR 35.9. Allowed: BOS 31.7, POR 27.8

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, POR 14.6%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, POR 14.8%

BOSSmall

POR offense vs BOS defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

PORSmall

BOS offense vs POR defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.9% and 51.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	@ PHX	W120–112LO
Jan 7	@ LAL	W111–89WU
Jan 9	@ LAC	W146–115WO

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	vs NY	L97–127LO
Jan 6	@ NO	W118–106WU
Jan 7	@ DAL	L93–100LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 8–2 PORBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 26, 2025-26	POR 94 @ BOS 102	BOS -8.5	POR W
Dec 28, 2025-26	BOS 108 @ POR 114	POR +6.5	POR W
Mar 23, 2024-25	BOS 129 @ POR 116	POR +6.5	BOS W
Mar 5, 2024-25	POR 118 @ BOS 128	BOS -8.5	BOS W
Apr 7, 2023-24	POR 107 @ BOS 124	BOS -16.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 2, Trail Blazers 0, even 3

CelticsBetterTrail Blazers

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

Even

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BOSSmall

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

Even

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

CelticsBetterTrail Blazers

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Even

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSSmall

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

POR4.2 #21

BOS		POR
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	120.6 #4
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.16 #5
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
35.5 #10	3-point %	35.3 #12
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
28.0 #6	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
9.2 #9	Steals per game	8.6 #18
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Trail Blazers

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Trail Blazers