Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 4, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Suns
BOS	This season	PHX
5-1	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	0-4
2-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 115–108 · win probability BOS 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 7, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

PHX offense vs BOS defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 45.9% and 45.1% of their shots

BOSBig

Recent form

Last 4: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, PHX 22.8. Allowed: BOS 31.7, PHX 31.1

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs PHX defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, PHX 17.1%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, PHX 65.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ LAL	W111–89WU
Jan 9	@ LAC	W146–115WO
Jan 11	vs HOU	W114–93WU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	@ DEN	L120–127LO
Jan 8	@ DAL	W112–107LU
Jan 10	vs CHI	W120–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 8–2 PHXBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 6 meetings · BOS 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 16, 2025-26	PHX 112 @ BOS 120	BOS -8.5	PHX W
Feb 24, 2025-26	BOS 97 @ PHX 81	PHX +5.5	BOS W
Apr 4, 2024-25	PHX 103 @ BOS 123	BOS -14.5	BOS W
Mar 26, 2024-25	BOS 132 @ PHX 102	PHX +4.5	BOS W
Mar 14, 2023-24	PHX 112 @ BOS 127	BOS -5.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 3, Suns 0, even 2

CelticsBetterSuns

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

Even

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

CelticsBetterSuns

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

PHX5.3 #10

BOS		PHX
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.12 #12
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
35.5 #10	3-point %	35.0 #16
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
28.0 #6	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Suns

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Suns

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Suns