Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 31, 6:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Kings
BKN	This season	SAC
1-5	Record	0-6
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SAC 115–115 · win probability SAC 51%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

BKN 5, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNBig

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 48.0% and 38.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, SAC 73.7%

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

BKNSmall

SAC offense vs BKN defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, BKN 1-2 away

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, SAC 26.4. Allowed: BKN 33.5, SAC 31.2

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, SAC 14.6%

Even

BKN offense vs SAC defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ GS	L106–109WU
Jan 4	@ UTAH	W109–99WU
Jan 6	vs UTAH	W109–99WU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ PHX	L103–114LU
Jan 3	@ OKC	L99–113WU
Jan 5	vs DET	L116–139LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 3–7 SACSAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BKN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	SAC 99 @ BKN 116	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Mar 22, 2025-26	BKN 122 @ SAC 126	SAC -6.5	BKN W
Jan 27, 2024-25	SAC 110 @ BKN 96	BKN +12.5	SAC W
Nov 24, 2024-25	BKN 108 @ SAC 103	SAC -10.5	BKN W
Apr 7, 2023-24	SAC 107 @ BKN 77	BKN +10.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nets has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 2, Kings 1, even 2

NetsBetterKings

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

BKNSmall

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

SACSmall

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

Even

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

Even

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

NetsBetterKings

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Even

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

BKNSmall

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

BKNSmall

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

SACBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

SAC2.3 #30

BKN		SAC
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.03 #28
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
35.1 #15	3-point %	30.4 #27
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
22.8 #28	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.0 #14	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Kings

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Kings

Nets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Kings