Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 8:30 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Warriors
BKN	This season	GS
1-5	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	5-2
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 120–108 · win probability GS 81%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

BKN 0, GS 8 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

BKN offense vs GS defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

GS offense vs BKN defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 48.0% and 47.1% of their shots

GSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, GS 16.7%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, GS 17.6%

GSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

GSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: BKN 33.5, GS 27.3

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, GS 70.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	@ UTAH	W109–99WU
Jan 6	vs UTAH	W109–99WU
Jan 7	vs MIA	L110–126LO

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 6	vs NY	L107–110WU
Jan 7	vs DET	L101–115LU
Jan 9	vs CHI	L124–130LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 3–7 GSGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS has won the last 3 meetings · BKN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	BKN 106 @ GS 109	GS -12.5	BKN W
Dec 29, 2025-26	GS 120 @ BKN 107	BKN +6.5	GS W
Mar 6, 2024-25	GS 121 @ BKN 119	BKN +11.5	BKN W
Nov 25, 2024-25	BKN 128 @ GS 120	GS -13.5	BKN W
Feb 5, 2023-24	GS 109 @ BKN 98	BKN -0.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Warriors 3, even 1

NetsBetterWarriors

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

GSBig

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

GSBig

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

BKNSmall

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

GSBig

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

NetsBetterWarriors

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

GSBig

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

GSBig

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

GS4.1 #24

BKN		GS
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.17 #3
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
35.1 #15	3-point %	40.0 #2
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
22.8 #28	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
9.0 #14	Steals per game	9.1 #11
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Warriors