Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Thunder
UTAH	This season	OKC
1-5	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 119–107 · win probability OKC 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

UTAH 0, OKC 5 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

UTAH offense vs OKC defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, OKC 15.8%

OKCBig

OKC offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, OKC 21.8. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, OKC 23.4

Even

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 41.7% and 35.8% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, OKC 71.4%

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	vs BKN	L99–109LU
Jan 6	@ BKN	L99–109LU
Jan 8	@ TOR	L127–143LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs SAC	W113–99LU
Jan 6	@ PHI	W123–103WU
Jan 7	@ WSH	W132–111LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

UTAH 6–14 OKCOKC leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 9 meetings · UTAH 6-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	UTAH 111 @ OKC 146	OKC -24.5	OKC W
Jan 7, 2025-26	UTAH 125 @ OKC 129	OKC -19.5	UTAH W
Dec 7, 2025-26	OKC 131 @ UTAH 101	UTAH +11.5	OKC W
Nov 21, 2025-26	OKC 144 @ UTAH 112	UTAH +16.5	OKC W
Apr 11, 2024-25	OKC 145 @ UTAH 111	UTAH +8.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, Thunder 3, even 1

JazzBetterThunder

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

Even

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

JazzBetterThunder

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

OKCSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHSmall

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

OKC6.3 #7

UTAH		OKC
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.05 #23
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
32.6 #23	3-point %	30.9 #26
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
26.2 #19	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
6.2 #29	Steals per game	8.3 #20
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Thunder