Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Bulls
LAL	This season	CHI
5-2	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 126–116 · win probability LAL 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 241.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 4, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

LALBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 45.7% and 47.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, CHI 69.8%

CHISmall

CHI offense vs LAL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, CHI 38.3. Allowed: LAL 30.7, CHI 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ TOR	W131–125WO
Jan 5	@ WSH	W120–101WU
Jan 7	vs BOS	L89–111LU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	@ IND	L126–145LO
Jan 5	vs MIL	W132–125WO
Jan 7	@ SAC	L110–126LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 4–6 CHICHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 2 meetings · LAL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ LAL 142	LAL -10.5	LAL W
Jan 26, 2025-26	LAL 129 @ CHI 118	CHI +1.5	LAL W
Mar 27, 2024-25	LAL 117 @ CHI 119	CHI +3.5	CHI W
Mar 22, 2024-25	CHI 146 @ LAL 115	LAL -10.5	CHI W
Jan 25, 2023-24	CHI 132 @ LAL 141	LAL -5.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 4, Bulls 0, even 1

LakersBetterBulls

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

Even

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

LALBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

LALSmall

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

LakersBetterBulls

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

CHISmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

LALBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

CHI5.0 #12

LAL		CHI
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.04 #26
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
38.9 #4	3-point %	28.1 #30
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
23.4 #27	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
10.4 #4	Steals per game	8.7 #17
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Bulls

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Bulls

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Bulls