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NBA · Sat, Jan 2

Mavericks @ Hawks

State Farm Arena · at Hawks
#17DALMavericks
@
#14ATLHawks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonATL
4-2Record3-4
4-2ATS3-4
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 118–115 · win probability ATL 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

DAL 4, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, ATL 18.3%
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5
ATLBig
ATL offense vs DAL defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALBig
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALSmall
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 42.1% and 44.7% of their shots
DALSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, ATL 23.4. Allowed: DAL 27.2, ATL 32.1
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points
ATLSmall
Home court
ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
DAL offense vs ATL defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, ATL 70.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelATL -2.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 115.1 · ATL 117.6
Win probability
ATL 57%
1st half
Spread
ATL -1.3
Total
116.4
Projected score
DAL 57.6 · ATL 58.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Mavericks 1, Hawks 1, even 3
MavericksBetterHawks
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
ATLBig
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
Even
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
Even
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
DALSmall
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
MavericksBetterHawks
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Even
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
ATLSmall
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
ATLBig
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
DALBig
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DALATL
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game116.3 #13
1.12 #11Points per possession1.10 #16
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)105.6 #7
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%52.6 #19
35.1 #143-point %32.8 #22
42.1 #183-point attempt rate44.7 #11
21.4 #29Free throw rate23.4 #26
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate13.8 #4
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate27.1 #18
27.0 #12Assists per game30.7 #1
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed115.4 #19
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.10 #17
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%54.5 #22
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %31.9 #7
14.5 #24Turnovers forced18.3 #2
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate70.9 #19
8.8 #16Steals per game9.4 #8
6.8 #2Blocks per game3.7 #29
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.