Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 31, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Pelicans
LAL	This season	NO
5-2	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	4-2
4-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 121–117 · win probability LAL 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

LAL 2, NO 3 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs NO defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, NO 76.4%

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, LAL 2-1 away

NOSmall

NO offense vs LAL defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 45.7% and 32.8% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, NO 17.4%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, NO 16.3%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, NO 35.3. Allowed: LAL 30.7, NO 30.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ CHI	W142–130WO
Jan 3	@ TOR	W131–125WO
Jan 5	@ WSH	W120–101WU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	vs MIA	L111–123LO
Jan 4	vs DAL	W129–111WU
Jan 6	vs POR	L106–118LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

LAL 14–5 NOLAL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 10 meetings · LAL 12-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2025-26	NO 101 @ LAL 110	LAL -7.5	LAL W
Jan 6, 2025-26	LAL 111 @ NO 103	NO +5.5	LAL W
Nov 30, 2025-26	NO 121 @ LAL 133	LAL -15.5	NO W
Nov 14, 2025-26	LAL 118 @ NO 104	NO +9.5	LAL W
Apr 4, 2024-25	NO 108 @ LAL 124	LAL -15.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 2, Pelicans 1, even 2

LakersBetterPelicans

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

NOSmall

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

Even

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

LakersBetterPelicans

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

Even

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

NO4.8 #16

LAL		NO
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.10 #15
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
38.9 #4	3-point %	31.2 #25
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
23.4 #27	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
10.4 #4	Steals per game	13.7 #1
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Pelicans

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Pelicans