Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 31, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Thunder
MIA	This season	OKC
2-4	Record	4-2
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 118–112 · win probability OKC 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

MIA 1, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs MIA defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, OKC 71.4%

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, OKC 21.8. Allowed: MIA 23.2, OKC 23.4

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 41.7% and 35.8% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, OKC 15.8%

Even

MIA offense vs OKC defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIA away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ NO	W123–111WO
Jan 5	vs MEM	W136–120WO
Jan 7	@ BKN	W126–110WO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	vs UTAH	W146–111WO
Jan 3	vs SAC	W113–99LU
Jan 6	@ PHI	W123–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIA 5–5 OKCSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	OKC 120 @ MIA 122	MIA +11.5	MIA W
Jan 11, 2025-26	MIA 112 @ OKC 124	OKC -14.5	MIA W
Feb 12, 2024-25	MIA 101 @ OKC 115	OKC -13.5	OKC W
Dec 20, 2024-25	OKC 104 @ MIA 97	MIA +1.5	OKC W
Mar 8, 2023-24	MIA 100 @ OKC 107	OKC -8.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 2, Thunder 3, even 0

HeatBetterThunder

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

MIASmall

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

OKCSmall

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

HeatBetterThunder

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Even

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

OKCSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIASmall

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

OKC6.3 #7

MIA		OKC
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.05 #23
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
34.1 #19	3-point %	30.9 #26
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
28.8 #3	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
8.3 #19	Steals per game	8.3 #20
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Thunder