New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 31, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Suns
NY	This season	PHX
2-4	Record	1-3
1-5	ATS	0-4
1-5	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 113–108 · win probability NY 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

NY 4, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, PHX 65.1%

NYBig

PHX offense vs NY defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: NY 13.2%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, PHX 22.8. Allowed: NY 25.9, PHX 31.1

NYSmall

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 43.2% and 45.1% of their shots

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 4: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

Even

NY offense vs PHX defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ DEN	W142–103WO
Jan 4	@ POR	W127–97WO
Jan 6	@ GS	W110–107LU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	vs SAC	W114–103WU
Jan 4	vs BOS	L112–120WO
Jan 5	@ DEN	L120–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 4–6 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · NY 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	PHX 106 @ NY 99	NY -1.5	PHX W
Jan 9, 2025-26	NY 107 @ PHX 112	PHX +1.5	PHX W
Apr 6, 2024-25	PHX 98 @ NY 112	NY -9.5	NY W
Nov 20, 2024-25	NY 138 @ PHX 122	PHX +4.5	NY W
Dec 15, 2023-24	NY 139 @ PHX 122	PHX -4.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Suns 0, even 2

KnicksBetterSuns

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

Even

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

KnicksBetterSuns

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Even

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

PHX5.3 #10

NY		PHX
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.12 #12
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
35.2 #13	3-point %	35.0 #16
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
26.2 #18	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
7.3 #23	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Suns

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Suns

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Suns