Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 29, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Thunder
MIL	This season	OKC
1-5	Record	4-2
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 120–106 · win probability OKC 84%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

MIL 2, OKC 6 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

MIL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, OKC 15.8%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCBig

OKC offense vs MIL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

MILSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, MIL 0-2 away

MILSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 45.9% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: MIL 29.7, OKC 23.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIL away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	@ ATL	L99–122LU
Jan 1	vs PHI	L116–127WO
Jan 3	vs CHA	W122–121LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	vs MIA	L120–122LO
Jan 2	vs UTAH	W146–111WO
Jan 3	vs SAC	W113–99LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

MIL 7–4 OKCMIL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · MIL 6-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 12, 2025-26	MIL 110 @ OKC 93	OKC -13.5	MIL W
Jan 21, 2025-26	OKC 122 @ MIL 102	MIL +12.5	OKC W
Mar 16, 2024-25	OKC 121 @ MIL 105	MIL +5.5	OKC W
Feb 3, 2024-25	MIL 96 @ OKC 125	OKC -17.5	OKC W
Dec 17, 2024-25	MIL 97 @ OKC 81	OKC -5.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Thunder 3, even 1

BucksBetterThunder

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

MILBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

Even

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

OKCSmall

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

BucksBetterThunder

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

OKCSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

OKC6.3 #7

MIL		OKC
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.05 #23
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
33.9 #21	3-point %	30.9 #26
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
26.0 #20	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
5.7 #30	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Thunder