Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 1, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Bucks
PHI	This season	MIL
6-1	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	2-4
2-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 116–110 · win probability PHI 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 5, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, MIL 12.2%

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, MIL 74.2%

PHIBig

MIL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

PHI offense vs MIL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, MIL 23.9. Allowed: PHI 28.5, MIL 29.7

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 39.5% and 45.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: PHI away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	vs ATL	L116–125LO
Jan 6	vs OKC	L103–123LU
Jan 8	vs MIA	L109–119LU

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs CHA	W122–121LO
Jan 5	@ CHI	L125–132LO
Jan 7	vs LAC	L113–127WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

PHI 8–11 MILMIL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · PHI 8-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	MIL 116 @ PHI 127	PHI -12.5	MIL W
Apr 12, 2025-26	MIL 106 @ PHI 126	PHI -16.5	PHI W
Jan 27, 2025-26	MIL 122 @ PHI 139	PHI -10.5	PHI W
Dec 5, 2025-26	PHI 116 @ MIL 101	MIL +1.5	PHI W
Nov 20, 2025-26	PHI 123 @ MIL 114	MIL +1.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 5, Bucks 0, even 0

76ersBetterBucks

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

PHISmall

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHISmall

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

76ersBetterBucks

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PHISmall

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

MIL4.0 #27

PHI		MIL
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.07 #20
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
34.0 #20	3-point %	33.9 #21
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
25.1 #22	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
9.6 #7	Steals per game	5.7 #30
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Bucks

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Bucks

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Bucks