LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 1, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Raptors
LAC	This season	TOR
1-5	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 115–108 · win probability TOR 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

LAC 2, TOR 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

LAC offense vs TOR defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, TOR 20.8%

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, TOR 73.4%

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, TOR 27.7. Allowed: LAC 24.7, TOR 41.5

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.3% and 38.1% of their shots

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, LAC 0-4 away

TORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

TOR offense vs LAC defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAC away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ WSH	W110–106LU
Jan 5	@ ORL	L109–111LO
Jan 7	@ MIL	W127–113LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs LAL	L125–131LO
Jan 5	@ CLE	L102–114LO
Jan 7	vs MIN	L94–117LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 7–3 TORLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	TOR 94 @ LAC 119	LAC -3.5	LAC W
Jan 16, 2025-26	LAC 121 @ TOR 117	TOR -2.5	LAC W
Feb 2, 2024-25	LAC 108 @ TOR 115	TOR +5.5	TOR W
Nov 9, 2024-25	TOR 103 @ LAC 105	LAC -6.5	TOR W
Jan 26, 2023-24	LAC 127 @ TOR 107	TOR +8.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 0, Raptors 3, even 2

ClippersBetterRaptors

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

TORBig

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

TORBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

ClippersBetterRaptors

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

Even

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACSmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

TOR4.3 #19

LAC		TOR
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.11 #13
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
38.6 #5	3-point %	32.0 #24
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
24.3 #26	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
11.3 #3	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Raptors