Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 31, 3:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Hawks
MIL	This season	ATL
1-5	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 123–111 · win probability ATL 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

MIL 2, ATL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs MIL defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, ATL 18.3%

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, ATL 70.9%

ATLSmall

MIL offense vs ATL defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

MILSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, ATL 23.4. Allowed: MIL 29.7, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 45.9% and 44.7% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 1	vs PHI	L116–127WO
Jan 3	vs CHA	W122–121LO
Jan 5	@ CHI	L125–132LO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	vs DAL	W135–120WO
Jan 4	@ PHI	W125–116WO
Jan 5	@ CHA	W128–81WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIL 8–10 ATLATL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 2 meetings · MIL 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	MIL 99 @ ATL 122	ATL -11.5	ATL W
Mar 4, 2025-26	ATL 131 @ MIL 113	MIL -1.5	ATL W
Jan 19, 2025-26	MIL 112 @ ATL 110	ATL -1.5	MIL W
Mar 30, 2024-25	ATL 145 @ MIL 124	MIL -4.5	ATL W
Mar 4, 2024-25	MIL 127 @ ATL 121	ATL +5.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Hawks 3, even 1

BucksBetterHawks

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

ATLBig

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

Even

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

BucksBetterHawks

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

ATLSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MILBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

ATL3.7 #29

MIL		ATL
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.10 #16
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
33.9 #21	3-point %	32.8 #22
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
26.0 #20	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Hawks