Spectrum Center · at Hornets
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 1-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 113–104 · win probability SA 74%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 216.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
SA 5, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far
SABigCHA offense vs SA defense
Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: SA 15.7%, CHA 14.5%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
SABigFree throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, CHA 18.9. Allowed: SA 21.7, CHA 28.4
SASmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1
CHASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, CHA 76.6%
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmallThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 39.0% and 50.8% of their shots
CHASmallHome court
CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, SA 2-0 away
Even
SA offense vs CHA defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -8.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model216.5
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 112.7 · CHA 103.8
Win probability
SA 74%
1st half
Spread
SA -5.2
Total
108.8
Projected score
SA 57 · CHA 51.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| CHAlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 3-4 43% | 1-6 14% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
SA 2–8 CHACHA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA 3-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025-26 | CHA 102 @ SA 115 | SA -6.5 | SA W |
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | SA 106 @ CHA 111 | CHA +3.5 | CHA W |
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | CHA 145 @ SA 134 | SA -2.5 | CHA W |
| Feb 7, 2024-25 | SA 116 @ CHA 117 | CHA +9.5 | CHA W |
| Jan 19, 2023-24 | SA 120 @ CHA 124 | CHA -4.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hornets
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-6
14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ BKN | W 110-103 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 220.5 | U 213 |
| Oct 23 | vs ATL | L 81-128 | +2.5 | L −44.5 | 226.5 | U 209 |
| Oct 24 | vs MIA | W 115-110 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 227.5 | U 225 |
| Oct 26 | vs WSH | W 110-103 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 225.5 | U 213 |
| Oct 28 | @ DET | L 89-97 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 212.5 | U 186 |
| Oct 30 | @WSH | L 79-95 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 218.5 | U 174 |
| Oct 31 | vs PHI | L 104-109 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 211.5 | O 213 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@BKN
BKNW 110-103
+5.5
23
vsATL
ATLL 81-128
−44.5
24
vsMIA
MIAW 115-110
+9.5
26
vsWSH
WSHW 110-103
+4.5
28
@DET
DETL 89-97
−0.5
30
@WSH
WSHL 79-95
−14.5
31
vsPHI
PHIL 104-109
−3.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@BKN
BKNW 110-103
−7.5
23
vsATL
ATLL 81-128
−17.5
24
vsMIA
MIAW 115-110
−2.5
26
vsWSH
WSHW 110-103
−12.5
28
@DET
DETL 89-97
−26.5
30
@WSH
WSHL 79-95
−44.5
31
vsPHI
PHIL 104-109
+1.5
over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 2, Hornets 0, even 3
SpursBetterHornets
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
←SABig
G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast
Score 21
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
=Even
G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
Score 63
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
=Even
F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 70
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
=Even
F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast
Score 66
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
←SABig
C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 14
SpursBetterHornets
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
=Even
CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
←SABig
CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
←SABig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench-5.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
HornetsGuards
D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew
Forwards
B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min
Centers
N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12CHA98.3 #30Points per possession
SA1.12 #10CHA0.99 #30Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11CHA98.3 #30Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16CHA48.4 #293-point %
SA34.9 #17CHA29.6 #283-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24CHA50.8 #2Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24CHA18.9 #30Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2CHA18.8 #29Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16CHA31.6 #4Assists per game
SA27.5 #9CHA21.6 #30Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12CHA106.4 #4Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6CHA1.09 #15Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11CHA53.1 #15Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23CHA37.5 #24Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14CHA14.5 #23Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7CHA76.6 #5Steals per game
SA9.2 #10CHA7.1 #25Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1CHA5.0 #15| SA | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 98.3 #30 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 0.99 #30 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 98.3 #30 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 48.4 #29 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 29.6 #28 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 50.8 #2 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 18.9 #30 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 18.8 #29 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 31.6 #4 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 21.6 #30 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 106.4 #4 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #15 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 53.1 #15 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.5 #24 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #23 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 76.6 #5 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 7.1 #25 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 5.0 #15 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Hornets
3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs 76ers104–109
- L@ Wizards79–95
- L@ Pistons89–97
- Wvs Wizards110–103
- Wvs Heat115–110
A week or more of rest.