LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 31, 3:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Cavaliers
LAC	This season	CLE
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 118–111 · win probability CLE 70%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

LAC 0, CLE 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLEBig

CLE offense vs LAC defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

LAC offense vs CLE defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 42.3% and 43.6% of their shots

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, CLE 73.9%

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, CLE 28.9. Allowed: LAC 24.7, CLE 23.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 1	@ TOR	W119–94WU
Jan 3	@ WSH	W110–106LU
Jan 5	@ ORL	L109–111LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ CHA	W118–113LO
Jan 3	@ HOU	L100–117LU
Jan 5	vs TOR	W114–102WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 3–7 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 3 meetings · LAC 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2025-26	CLE 124 @ LAC 91	LAC +2.5	CLE W
Nov 23, 2025-26	LAC 105 @ CLE 120	CLE -7.5	CLE W
Mar 30, 2024-25	LAC 122 @ CLE 127	CLE -6.5	LAC W
Mar 18, 2024-25	CLE 119 @ LAC 132	LAC +2.5	LAC W
Apr 7, 2023-24	CLE 118 @ LAC 120	LAC -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 1, Cavaliers 4, even 0

ClippersBetterCavaliers

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

CLESmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

ClippersBetterCavaliers

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

CLESmall

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

CLESmall

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Even

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

CLE6.3 #6

LAC		CLE
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.14 #7
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
38.6 #5	3-point %	37.0 #8
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
24.3 #26	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
11.3 #3	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Cavaliers