Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 30, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Suns
PHI	This season	PHX
6-1	Record	1-3
4-3	ATS	0-4
2-5	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 112–111 · win probability PHI 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 6, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

PHX offense vs PHI defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 39.5% and 45.1% of their shots

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, PHX 22.8. Allowed: PHI 28.5, PHX 31.1

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

PHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, PHX 17.1%

PHISmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, PHX 65.1%

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

PHI offense vs PHX defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 1	@ MIL	W127–116LO
Jan 4	vs ATL	L116–125LO
Jan 6	vs OKC	L103–123LU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	vs NY	W106–99WU
Jan 2	vs SAC	W114–103WU
Jan 4	vs BOS	L112–120WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 3–7 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	PHI 109 @ PHX 103	PHX -2.5	PHI W
Jan 20, 2025-26	PHX 116 @ PHI 110	PHI +2.5	PHX W
Jan 6, 2024-25	PHX 109 @ PHI 99	PHI +1.5	PHX W
Nov 4, 2024-25	PHI 116 @ PHX 118	PHX -7.5	PHI W
Mar 20, 2023-24	PHI 102 @ PHX 115	PHX -9.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Suns 1, even 1

76ersBetterSuns

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHXSmall

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

76ersBetterSuns

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHISmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

PHX5.3 #10

PHI		PHX
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.12 #12
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
34.0 #20	3-point %	35.0 #16
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
25.1 #22	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.6 #7	Steals per game	9.0 #15
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Suns

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Suns

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Suns