Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 29, 10:30 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Lakers
HOU	This season	LAL
6-1	Record	5-2
6-1	ATS	4-3
5-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 116–114 · win probability HOU 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 3, LAL 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, LAL 67.4%

HOUBig

HOU offense vs LAL defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.7% of their shots

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: HOU 24.7, LAL 30.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, LAL 17.8%

Even

LAL offense vs HOU defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	@ GS	W117–116LO
Jan 1	vs DAL	L111–116LO
Jan 3	vs CLE	W117–100WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	@ NO	W110–101WU
Jan 2	@ CHI	W142–130WO
Jan 3	@ TOR	W131–125WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

HOU 8–15 LALLAL leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · HOU 10-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 1, 2025-26	LAL 98 @ HOU 78	HOU -5.5	LAL W
Apr 29, 2025-26	HOU 99 @ LAL 93	LAL -3.5	HOU W
Apr 26, 2025-26	LAL 96 @ HOU 115	HOU -3.5	HOU W
Apr 24, 2025-26	LAL 112 @ HOU 108	HOU -7.5	LAL W
Apr 21, 2025-26	HOU 94 @ LAL 101	LAL +5.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 3, Lakers 1, even 1

RocketsBetterLakers

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

LALSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUSmall

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUSmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

RocketsBetterLakers

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

LAL6.7 #3

HOU		LAL
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.18 #2
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
39.0 #3	3-point %	38.9 #4
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
28.1 #5	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.7 #6	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Lakers

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Lakers

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Lakers