Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 HOU | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 6-1 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 5-2 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects HOU 117–112 · win probability HOU 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges
HOU 5, GS 1 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBigShooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
HOUSmallHOU offense vs GS defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUSmallThree-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 47.1% of their shots
HOUSmallGS offense vs HOU defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: HOU 24.7, GS 27.3
GSSmallHome court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, GS 70.4%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, GS 16.7%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, GS 17.6%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -4.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.4
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 116.5 · GS 111.9
Win probability
HOU 63%
1st half
Spread
HOU -2.7
Total
114.4
Projected score
HOU 58.6 · GS 55.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 6-1 86% | 5-2 71% |
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22
HOU 7–18 GSGS leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · HOU 9-15-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025-26 | HOU 117 @ GS 116 | GS +3.5 | GS W |
| Mar 5, 2025-26 | GS 115 @ HOU 113 | HOU -9.5 | GS W |
| Nov 26, 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ GS 100 | GS -3.5 | HOU W |
| May 4, 2024-25 | GS 103 @ HOU 89 | HOU -2.5 | GS W |
| May 2, 2024-25 | HOU 115 @ GS 107 | GS -5.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rockets
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vs DAL | W 128-110 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 230.5 | O 238 |
| Oct 23 | @ SA | W 114-110 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 224.5 | U 224 |
| Oct 24 | @ ATL | W 121-114 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 227.5 | O 235 |
| Oct 26 | vsATL | W 120-110 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 228.5 | O 230 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIL | W 132-100 | -8.5 | W +23.5 | 226.5 | O 232 |
| Oct 30 | @DAL | L 111-116 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 223.5 | O 227 |
| Oct 31 | vs OKC | W 119-98 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 219.5 | U 217 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+23.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
−10.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
+18.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+5.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
+3.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
−2.5
over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rockets has the better starters
Position by position: Rockets 2, Warriors 0, even 3
RocketsBetterWarriors
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 60
=Even
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast
Score 94
←HOUSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 79
←HOUBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 82
=Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast
Score 84
=Even
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
RocketsBetterWarriors
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
←HOUSmall
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
←HOUSmall
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
←HOUBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
←HOUBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
←HOUBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
RocketsGuards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
HOU120.7 #3GS117.7 #11Points per possession
HOU1.20 #1GS1.17 #3Pace (possessions)
HOU101.6 #24GS101.4 #25Shooting
Effective FG%
HOU56.6 #3GS55.3 #83-point %
HOU39.0 #3GS40.0 #23-point attempt rate
HOU38.1 #26GS47.1 #5Free throw rate
HOU31.9 #8GS28.8 #15Possessions
Turnover rate
HOU15.1 #13GS16.7 #22Offensive rebound rate
HOU32.4 #3GS33.2 #1Assists per game
HOU28.1 #5GS27.4 #10Defense
Points allowed
HOU108.3 #7GS114.9 #16Points allowed per possession
HOU1.06 #8GS1.13 #21Opponent effective FG%
HOU52.1 #10GS56.0 #25Opponent 3-point %
HOU30.2 #4GS35.2 #16Turnovers forced
HOU15.7 #16GS17.6 #5Defensive rebound rate
HOU73.2 #14GS70.4 #23Steals per game
HOU9.7 #6GS9.1 #11Blocks per game
HOU5.9 #8GS4.1 #24| HOU | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.7 #3 | Points per game | 117.7 #11 |
| 1.20 #1 | Points per possession | 1.17 #3 |
| 101.6 #24 | Pace (possessions) | 101.4 #25 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.6 #3 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #8 |
| 39.0 #3 | 3-point % | 40.0 #2 |
| 38.1 #26 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #5 |
| 31.9 #8 | Free throw rate | 28.8 #15 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.1 #13 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #22 |
| 32.4 #3 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.2 #1 |
| 28.1 #5 | Assists per game | 27.4 #10 |
| Defense | ||
| 108.3 #7 | Points allowed | 114.9 #16 |
| 1.06 #8 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #21 |
| 52.1 #10 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.0 #25 |
| 30.2 #4 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.2 #16 |
| 15.7 #16 | Turnovers forced | 17.6 #5 |
| 73.2 #14 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.4 #23 |
| 9.7 #6 | Steals per game | 9.1 #11 |
| 5.9 #8 | Blocks per game | 4.1 #24 |
Rockets
6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Thunder119–98
- L@ Mavericks111–116
- W@ Bucks132–100
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
A week or more of rest.
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.