Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 1, 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Jazz
BOS	This season	UTAH
5-1	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 119–108 · win probability BOS 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 7, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, UTAH 13.3%

BOSBig

UTAH offense vs BOS defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 45.9% and 41.7% of their shots

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

BOSBig

BOS offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, UTAH 77.1%

BOSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, BOS 1-1 away

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: BOS 31.7, UTAH 33.8

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: BOS away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ POR	W102–94LU
Jan 4	@ PHX	W120–112LO
Jan 7	@ LAL	W111–89WU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 2	@ OKC	L111–146LO
Jan 4	vs BKN	L99–109LU
Jan 6	@ BKN	L99–109LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 7–3 UTAHBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2025-26	BOS 129 @ UTAH 119	UTAH +8.5	BOS W
Nov 3, 2025-26	UTAH 105 @ BOS 103	BOS -10.5	UTAH W
Mar 21, 2024-25	BOS 121 @ UTAH 99	UTAH +15.5	BOS W
Mar 10, 2024-25	UTAH 108 @ BOS 114	BOS -15.5	UTAH W
Mar 12, 2023-24	BOS 123 @ UTAH 107	UTAH +6.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 4, Jazz 1, even 0

CelticsBetterJazz

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

UTAHSmall

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

CelticsBetterJazz

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

UTAH6.5 #5

BOS		UTAH
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.05 #25
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
35.5 #10	3-point %	32.6 #23
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
28.0 #6	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
9.2 #9	Steals per game	6.2 #29
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Jazz

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Jazz

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Jazz