Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 119–109 · win probability DET 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
NO 0, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETBigNO offense vs DET defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallDET offense vs NO defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
DETSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, DET 15.6%. Forced: NO 16.3%, DET 17.1%
DETSmallThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 32.8% and 43.3% of their shots
DETSmallShooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, DET 28.9. Allowed: NO 30.6, DET 28.1
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, DET 72.8%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -10.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.5
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 108.5 · DET 119
Win probability
DET 77%
1st half
Spread
DET -5.7
Total
114.0
Projected score
NO 54.1 · DET 59.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
NO 6–4 DETNO leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 4 meetings · NO 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025-26 | NO 108 @ DET 129 | DET -4.5 | DET W |
| Jan 21, 2025-26 | DET 112 @ NO 104 | NO +7.5 | DET W |
| Mar 23, 2024-25 | NO 130 @ DET 136 | DET -11.5 | NO W |
| Mar 17, 2024-25 | DET 127 @ NO 81 | NO +6.5 | DET W |
| Mar 24, 2023-24 | NO 114 @ DET 101 | DET +14.5 | DET W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 1, Pistons 2, even 2
PelicansBetterPistons
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
=Even
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
→DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
=Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
→DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
←NOSmall
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
PelicansBetterPistons
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
→DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→DETSmall
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
→DETBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
→DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7DET109.8 #21Points per possession
NO1.10 #15DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9DET53.1 #173-point %
NO31.2 #25DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25DET27.2 #17Assists per game
NO25.5 #21DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6DET72.8 #15Steals per game
NO13.7 #1DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16DET6.7 #4| NO | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.