Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 30, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Raptors
WSH	This season	TOR
3-3	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 120–109 · win probability TOR 78%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

WSH 3, TOR 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, TOR 73.4%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, TOR 27.7. Allowed: WSH 21.8, TOR 41.5

TORBig

WSH offense vs TOR defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, TOR 20.8%

TORSmall

TOR offense vs WSH defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 37.6% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 1	vs SA	L113–124WU
Jan 3	vs LAC	L106–110WU
Jan 5	vs LAL	L101–120LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 1	vs LAC	L94–119LU
Jan 3	vs LAL	L125–131LO
Jan 5	@ CLE	L102–114LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

WSH 5–14 TORTOR leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 2 meetings · WSH 6-12-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	TOR 112 @ WSH 102	WSH +9.5	TOR W
Feb 28, 2025-26	TOR 134 @ WSH 125	WSH +13.5	WSH W
Dec 26, 2025-26	TOR 117 @ WSH 138	WSH +8.5	WSH W
Nov 21, 2025-26	WSH 110 @ TOR 140	TOR -14.5	TOR W
Mar 24, 2024-25	TOR 112 @ WSH 104	WSH -1.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Raptors 2, even 2

WizardsBetterRaptors

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

TORBig

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

WizardsBetterRaptors

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

TORSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

TOR4.3 #19

WSH		TOR
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.11 #13
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
29.3 #29	3-point %	32.0 #24
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
24.5 #24	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
7.2 #24	Steals per game	12.7 #2
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Raptors