Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 28, 10:30 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Nuggets
MIN	This season	DEN
4-3	Record	3-2
6-1	ATS	2-3
4-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 119–114 · win probability MIN 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 5, DEN 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs DEN defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, DEN 31.3. Allowed: MIN 28.9, DEN 21.5

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

MINSmall

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 42.8% and 40.9% of their shots

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, DEN 15.9%

Even

DEN offense vs MIN defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	vs DEN	W110–98
Jan 2	@ IND	W124–104WU
Jan 3	vs SA	L111–121WO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	@ MIN	L98–110
Jan 2	vs NY	L103–142LO
Jan 3	vs DET	L121–124WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 38 since 2021-22

MIN 21–17 DENMIN leads · 38 games since 2021-22 · MIN 22-15 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 30, 2025-26	DEN 98 @ MIN 110	—	—
Apr 27, 2025-26	MIN 113 @ DEN 125	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Apr 25, 2025-26	DEN 96 @ MIN 112	MIN +1.5	MIN W
Apr 23, 2025-26	DEN 96 @ MIN 113	MIN -1.5	MIN W
Apr 20, 2025-26	MIN 119 @ DEN 114	DEN -7.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 2, Nuggets 0, even 3

TimberwolvesBetterNuggets

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINSmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

TimberwolvesBetterNuggets

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

DEN4.4 #18

MIN		DEN
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.13 #9
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
37.6 #6	3-point %	37.4 #7
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
27.3 #11	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.0 #13	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Nuggets

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Nuggets

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Nuggets