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NBA · Sun, Dec 27

Timberwolves @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
#2MINTimberwolves
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MINThis seasonGS
4-3Record4-3
6-1ATS5-2
4-3O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 119–114 · win probability MIN 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 3, GS 2 · 2026-27 so far
MINBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
MINBig
MIN offense vs GS defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, GS 28.8. Allowed: MIN 28.9, GS 27.3
MINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, GS 70.4%
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away
Even
Three-pointers
MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 42.8% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, GS 16.7%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, GS 17.6%
Context
Schedule so far
MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
GS offense vs MIN defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -5.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MIN 118.5 · GS 113.5
Win probability
MIN 64%
1st half
Spread
MIN -3.0
Total
116.1
Projected score
MIN 59.5 · GS 56.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 3, Warriors 1, even 1
TimberwolvesBetterWarriors
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
GSSmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
MINSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
MINBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
MINSmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
TimberwolvesBetterWarriors
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
MINBig
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
Even
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
MINBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIN betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MINGS
Scoring
120.0 #6Points per game117.7 #11
1.13 #8Points per possession1.17 #3
105.4 #9Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
55.8 #6Effective FG%55.3 #8
37.6 #63-point %40.0 #2
42.8 #163-point attempt rate47.1 #5
26.1 #21Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
15.1 #12Turnover rate16.7 #22
30.0 #7Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
27.3 #11Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
108.7 #8Points allowed114.9 #16
1.04 #4Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
50.5 #5Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
31.2 #6Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
15.6 #17Turnovers forced17.6 #5
75.4 #8Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
9.0 #13Steals per game9.1 #11
4.3 #20Blocks per game4.1 #24
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.