Philadelphia 76ers at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 9:00 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Clippers
PHI	This season	LAC
6-1	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 111–110 · win probability LAC 53%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PHI 3, LAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

LAC offense vs PHI defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, LAC 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACBig

PHI offense vs LAC defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

LACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, LAC 70.9%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, LAC 28.0. Allowed: PHI 28.5, LAC 24.7

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 39.5% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	@ SAC	W139–118WO
Dec 30	@ PHX	W109–103WU
Jan 1	@ MIL	W127–116LO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	@ IND	W114–113LU
Dec 31	@ CLE	L91–124LU
Jan 1	@ TOR	W119–94WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 6–4 LACPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · PHI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 2, 2025-26	PHI 128 @ LAC 113	LAC +1.5	PHI W
Nov 17, 2025-26	LAC 108 @ PHI 110	PHI -5.5	LAC W
Nov 24, 2024-25	LAC 125 @ PHI 99	PHI +1.5	LAC W
Nov 6, 2024-25	PHI 98 @ LAC 110	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Mar 27, 2023-24	LAC 108 @ PHI 107	PHI +6.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Clippers 1, even 1

76ersBetterClippers

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

Even

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

LACSmall

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

76ersBetterClippers

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

LACSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

LAC4.2 #22

PHI		LAC
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.04 #27
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
34.0 #20	3-point %	38.6 #5
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
25.1 #22	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.6 #7	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Clippers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Clippers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Clippers