Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 9:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Lakers
MEM	This season	LAL
6-0	Record	5-2
6-0	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 121–114 · win probability LAL 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, LAL 3 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, LAL 67.4%

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, LAL 37.2. Allowed: MEM 31.4, LAL 30.7

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 45.7% of their shots

LALBig

LAL offense vs MEM defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

MEM offense vs LAL defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

MEMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, LAL 17.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs SA	L98–123LU
Jan 3	@ ORL	W126–109WO
Jan 5	@ MIA	L120–136LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs HOU	W98–78WU
Dec 31	@ NO	W110–101WU
Jan 2	@ CHI	W142–130WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

MEM 8–16 LALLAL leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 6 meetings · MEM 10-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 4, 2025-26	MEM 114 @ LAL 120	LAL -5.5	LAL W
Jan 2, 2025-26	MEM 121 @ LAL 128	LAL -5.5	LAL W
Oct 31, 2025-26	LAL 117 @ MEM 112	MEM +1.5	LAL W
Mar 29, 2024-25	LAL 134 @ MEM 127	MEM -1.5	LAL W
Dec 15, 2024-25	MEM 110 @ LAL 116	LAL +2.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Lakers 1, even 1

GrizzliesBetterLakers

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

Even

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

LALSmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

GrizzliesBetterLakers

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

LALSmall

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

LAL6.7 #3

MEM		LAL
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.18 #2
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
41.7 #1	3-point %	38.9 #4
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
27.0 #13	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
6.3 #28	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Lakers

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Lakers

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Lakers