LA Clippers at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 29, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Pacers
LAC	This season	IND
1-5	Record	2-5
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 115–112 · win probability LAC 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

LAC 2, IND 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACBig

IND offense vs LAC defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, IND 31.2. Allowed: LAC 24.7, IND 32.1

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

INDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, IND 14.8%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, IND 14.9%

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 42.3% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

LAC offense vs IND defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, IND 72.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	@ CLE	L91–124LU
Jan 1	@ TOR	W119–94WU
Jan 3	@ WSH	W110–106LU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	vs ORL	W128–126WO
Jan 2	vs MIN	L104–124LU
Jan 4	vs CHI	W145–126WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 5–5 INDSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	LAC 114 @ IND 113	IND +8.5	IND W
Mar 4, 2025-26	IND 107 @ LAC 130	LAC -11.5	LAC W
Feb 23, 2024-25	LAC 111 @ IND 129	IND -3.5	IND W
Feb 6, 2024-25	IND 119 @ LAC 112	LAC -5.5	IND W
Mar 25, 2023-24	IND 133 @ LAC 116	LAC -6.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 0, Pacers 2, even 3

ClippersBetterPacers

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

INDBig

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

Even

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

INDSmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

Even

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

ClippersBetterPacers

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Even

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

IND4.0 #26

LAC		IND
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.10 #17
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
38.6 #5	3-point %	34.1 #18
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
24.3 #26	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
11.3 #3	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Pacers

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Pacers