American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIA | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 120–117 · win probability DAL 60%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 237.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
MIA 3, DAL 5 · 2026-27 so far
DALBigThree-pointers
MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 42.1% of their shots
MIABigMIA offense vs DAL defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
MIABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, DAL 14.5%
DALBigDAL offense vs MIA defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, DAL 21.4. Allowed: MIA 23.2, DAL 27.2
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, DAL 69.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -3.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model237.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MIA 116.8 · DAL 120.2
Win probability
DAL 60%
1st half
Spread
DAL -1.8
Total
118.4
Projected score
MIA 58.3 · DAL 60.1
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
MIA 4–7 DALDAL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · DAL has won the last 2 meetings · MIA 3-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026-27 | DAL 113 @ MIA 109 | MIA -7.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 3, 2025-26 | MIA 108 @ DAL 118 | DAL +4.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 24, 2025-26 | DAL 102 @ MIA 106 | MIA -7.5 | DAL W |
| Feb 13, 2024-25 | MIA 113 @ DAL 118 | DAL +2.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 24, 2024-25 | DAL 118 @ MIA 123 | MIA -2.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@
ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vs
IND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Heat has the better starters
Position by position: Heat 3, Mavericks 1, even 1
HeatBetterMavericks
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
←MIABig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
→DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
←MIABig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
=Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
←MIASmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
HeatBetterMavericks
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
←MIABig
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
→DALSmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
←MIABig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
←MIABig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIA118.3 #9DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
MIA1.11 #14DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
MIA106.2 #5DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
MIA54.6 #12DAL56.9 #23-point %
MIA34.1 #19DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
MIA41.7 #20DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
MIA27.3 #19DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
MIA14.1 #5DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
MIA24.5 #24DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
MIA28.8 #3DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
MIA121.5 #26DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
MIA1.15 #26DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
MIA56.8 #27DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
MIA40.6 #29DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
MIA15.4 #18DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
MIA72.3 #17DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
MIA8.3 #19DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
MIA5.0 #13DAL6.8 #2| MIA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 118.3 #9 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 1.11 #14 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 106.2 #5 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 54.6 #12 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 34.1 #19 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 41.7 #20 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 27.3 #19 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.1 #5 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 24.5 #24 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 28.8 #3 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 121.5 #26 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.15 #26 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 56.8 #27 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 40.6 #29 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 15.4 #18 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 72.3 #17 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 8.3 #19 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 5.0 #13 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.