Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 26, 5:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Jazz
IND	This season	UTAH
2-5	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	1-5
3-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 118–116 · win probability UTAH 54%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

IND 3, UTAH 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: IND 14.9%, UTAH 13.3%

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, UTAH 77.1%

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense vs IND defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

INDSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 43.1% and 41.7% of their shots

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

IND offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: IND 32.1, UTAH 33.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: IND away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ DEN	L120–135LO
Dec 29	vs LAC	L113–114WU
Dec 31	vs ORL	W128–126WO

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ SAC	L111–116LU
Dec 30	vs NY	L117–134LO
Jan 1	vs BOS	L119–129LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 5–5 UTAHSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH has won the last 2 meetings · IND 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2025-26	UTAH 131 @ IND 122	IND +2.5	UTAH W
Nov 11, 2025-26	IND 128 @ UTAH 152	UTAH +2.5	UTAH W
Apr 4, 2024-25	UTAH 112 @ IND 140	IND -17.5	IND W
Feb 3, 2024-25	IND 112 @ UTAH 111	UTAH +6.5	UTAH W
Jan 15, 2023-24	IND 105 @ UTAH 132	UTAH -6.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 3, Jazz 2, even 0

PacersBetterJazz

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDBig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

INDSmall

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

UTAHSmall

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

UTAHSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

PacersBetterJazz

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

UTAH6.5 #5

IND		UTAH
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.05 #25
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
34.1 #18	3-point %	32.6 #23
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
28.0 #7	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
6.9 #27	Steals per game	6.2 #29
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Jazz

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Jazz

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Jazz