New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 26, 6:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Nets
NO	This season	BKN
2-4	Record	1-5
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 117–113 · win probability NO 63%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 4, BKN 1 · 2026-27 so far

NOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

NO offense vs BKN defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, BKN 32.9. Allowed: NO 30.6, BKN 33.5

NOSmall

BKN offense vs NO defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, NO 0-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, BKN 77.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 32.8% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: NO 16.3%, BKN 15.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: NO away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 28	@ TOR	L106–119LU
Dec 30	@ DET	L108–129LO
Dec 31	vs LAL	L101–110LU

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ NY	L92–93WU
Dec 29	@ POR	L99–134LO
Dec 31	@ SAC	W116–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NO 4–6 BKNBKN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NO 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 14, 2025-26	BKN 113 @ NO 116	NO -1.5	NO W
Dec 6, 2025-26	NO 101 @ BKN 119	BKN -3.5	BKN W
Apr 8, 2024-25	NO 114 @ BKN 119	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Nov 11, 2024-25	BKN 107 @ NO 105	NO +1.5	BKN W
Mar 19, 2023-24	NO 104 @ BKN 91	BKN +6.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 4, Nets 1, even 0

PelicansBetterNets

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

NOSmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

NOSmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

NOBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

PelicansBetterNets

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOSmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

NOSmall

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

NOBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

NOSmall

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

BKN4.7 #17

NO		BKN
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.03 #29
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
31.2 #25	3-point %	35.1 #15
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
25.5 #21	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
13.7 #1	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Nets

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Nets

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Nets