New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 28, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Raptors
NO	This season	TOR
2-4	Record	3-3
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 120–112 · win probability TOR 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

NO 4, TOR 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: NO 16.3%, TOR 20.8%

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, TOR 27.7. Allowed: NO 30.6, TOR 41.5

TORBig

TOR offense vs NO defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, TOR 73.4%

NOSmall

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 32.8% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, NO 0-2 away

TORSmall

NO offense vs TOR defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NO away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	@ DET	L108–129LO
Dec 31	vs LAL	L101–110LU
Jan 2	vs MIA	L111–123LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	vs WSH	W112–102WU
Jan 1	vs LAC	L94–119LU
Jan 3	vs LAL	L125–131LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NO 5–5 TORSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · NO 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	NO 106 @ TOR 119	TOR -8.5	TOR W
Mar 11, 2025-26	TOR 111 @ NO 122	NO +2.5	NO W
Jan 27, 2024-25	NO 104 @ TOR 113	TOR -0.5	TOR W
Nov 27, 2024-25	TOR 119 @ NO 93	NO -0.5	TOR W
Mar 5, 2023-24	NO 139 @ TOR 98	TOR +9.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 0, Raptors 1, even 4

PelicansBetterRaptors

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

Even

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

PelicansBetterRaptors

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Even

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

TORSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

TOR4.3 #19

NO		TOR
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.11 #13
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
31.2 #25	3-point %	32.0 #24
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
25.5 #21	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
13.7 #1	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Raptors