Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 26, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Clippers
MEM	This season	LAC
6-0	Record	1-5
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 115–112 · win probability LAC 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, LAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

MEMBig

LAC offense vs MEM defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 42.3% of their shots

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, LAC 70.9%

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, LAC 28.0. Allowed: MEM 31.4, LAC 24.7

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, LAC 17.0%

Even

MEM offense vs LAC defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ LAL	L114–120LU
Dec 29	vs SA	L98–123LU
Jan 3	@ ORL	W126–109WO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs PHI	L113–128LO
Dec 29	@ IND	W114–113LU
Dec 31	@ CLE	L91–124LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MEM 9–9 LACSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · MEM 12-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2025-26	LAC 123 @ MEM 120	MEM +7.5	MEM W
Dec 15, 2025-26	MEM 121 @ LAC 103	LAC -5.5	MEM W
Dec 5, 2025-26	LAC 98 @ MEM 107	MEM +2.5	MEM W
Nov 28, 2025-26	MEM 112 @ LAC 107	LAC -6.5	MEM W
Mar 21, 2024-25	MEM 108 @ LAC 128	LAC -6.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Clippers 0, even 2

GrizzliesBetterClippers

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

Even

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

GrizzliesBetterClippers

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Even

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

LAC4.2 #22

MEM		LAC
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.04 #27
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
41.7 #1	3-point %	38.6 #5
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
27.0 #13	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
6.3 #28	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Clippers

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Clippers

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Clippers