Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 20, 3:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Raptors
HOU	This season	TOR
6-1	Record	3-3
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 113–111 · win probability HOU 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 5, TOR 2 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: HOU 24.7, TOR 41.5

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, TOR 20.8%

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

HOUBig

TOR offense vs HOU defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

HOU offense vs TOR defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	@ PHI	W113–102WU
Dec 27	vs OKC	W119–98WU
Dec 29	@ LAL	L78–98LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 22	@ WSH	W112–102WU
Dec 23	@ MEM	W128–96WU
Dec 26	@ ORL	L114–121LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 5–5 TORSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings · HOU 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	TOR 99 @ HOU 113	HOU -4.5	HOU W
Oct 29, 2025-26	HOU 139 @ TOR 121	TOR +5.5	HOU W
Feb 9, 2024-25	TOR 87 @ HOU 94	HOU -8.5	TOR W
Dec 22, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ TOR 110	TOR +8.5	TOR W
Feb 9, 2023-24	HOU 104 @ TOR 107	TOR -2.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 3, Raptors 0, even 2

RocketsBetterRaptors

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUSmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUSmall

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

RocketsBetterRaptors

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

TOR4.3 #19

HOU		TOR
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.11 #13
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
39.0 #3	3-point %	32.0 #24
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
28.1 #5	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.7 #6	Steals per game	12.7 #2
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Raptors

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Raptors

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Raptors