Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and 76ers
HOU	This season	PHI
6-1	Record	6-1
6-1	ATS	4-3
5-2	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 113–107 · win probability HOU 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 7, PHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

PHI offense vs HOU defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, PHI 70.8%

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 39.5% of their shots

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, PHI 17.0%

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, PHI 28.7. Allowed: HOU 24.7, PHI 28.5

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

HOUSmall

HOU offense vs PHI defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs OKC	W119–98WU
Dec 29	@ LAL	L78–98LU
Dec 30	@ GS	W117–116LO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	@ LAL	L115–119LU
Dec 27	@ LAC	W128–113WO
Dec 29	@ SAC	W139–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 4–6 PHIPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 9, 2025-26	PHI 102 @ HOU 113	HOU -6.5	HOU W
Jan 22, 2025-26	HOU 122 @ PHI 128	PHI +1.5	PHI W
Mar 17, 2024-25	PHI 137 @ HOU 144	HOU -16.5	PHI W
Nov 27, 2024-25	HOU 122 @ PHI 115	PHI +5.5	HOU W
Jan 15, 2023-24	HOU 115 @ PHI 124	PHI -8.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 2, 76ers 1, even 2

RocketsBetter76ers

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

Even

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

PHISmall

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

Even

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

RocketsBetter76ers

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

PHI5.0 #14

HOU		PHI
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.06 #22
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
39.0 #3	3-point %	34.0 #20
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
28.1 #5	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.7 #6	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ 76ers

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

76ers

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

76ers