Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 25, 5:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineLAL -1.5no move

Total237.5no move

Season records: 76ers and Lakers
PHI	This season	LAL
6-1	Record	5-2
4-3	ATS	4-3
2-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 116–111 · win probability LAL 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

LAL -1.5

no move since the open

Total

237.5

model 227.3 · Under by 10

Model edge

LAL by 3.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

PHI 1, LAL 5 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

LAL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALSmall

PHI offense vs LAL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, LAL 37.2. Allowed: PHI 28.5, LAL 30.7

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 39.5% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, LAL 67.4%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	474	51%	47%	44%
Non-conference games at this spread	276	55%	51%	50%
Games with a total of 235 to 239.5	531	68%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	1-1
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; LAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ LAC	W128–113WO
Dec 29	@ SAC	W139–118WO
Dec 30	@ PHX	W109–103WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs MEM	W120–114WU
Dec 29	vs HOU	W98–78WU
Dec 31	@ NO	W110–101WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 6–4 LALPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 2 meetings · PHI 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ LAL 119	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Dec 7, 2025-26	LAL 112 @ PHI 108	PHI +2.5	LAL W
Jan 28, 2024-25	LAL 104 @ PHI 118	PHI +4.5	PHI W
Nov 8, 2024-25	PHI 106 @ LAL 116	LAL -7.5	LAL W
Mar 22, 2023-24	PHI 94 @ LAL 101	LAL -7.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 2, Lakers 3, even 0

76ersBetterLakers

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

LALSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

LALSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

76ersBetterLakers

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

LALSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

LALSmall

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHISmall

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

LAL6.7 #3

PHI		LAL
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.18 #2
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
34.0 #20	3-point %	38.9 #4
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
25.1 #22	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.6 #7	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Lakers