Miami Heat at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 25, 2:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineBOS -5.5no move

Total230.5no move

Season records: Heat and Celtics
MIA	This season	BOS
2-4	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 120–110 · win probability BOS 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

BOS -5.5

no move since the open

Total

230.5

model 230.1

Model edge

BOS by 4

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

MIA 1, BOS 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSBig

BOS offense vs MIA defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, BOS 17.8%

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, MIA 1-1 away

MIASmall

MIA offense vs BOS defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, BOS 32.3. Allowed: MIA 23.2, BOS 31.7

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, BOS 68.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; BOS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs CHA	L110–115LU
Dec 29	@ DAL	L109–113LU
Dec 31	@ OKC	W122–120WO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 28	vs CLE	W109–98WU
Dec 30	@ CHI	W125–111LU
Jan 1	@ UTAH	W129–119WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 37 since 2021-22

MIA 12–25 BOSBOS leads · 37 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 4 meetings · MIA 16-21 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	BOS 147 @ MIA 129	MIA +4.5	BOS W
Feb 6, 2025-26	MIA 96 @ BOS 98	BOS -5.5	MIA W
Jan 15, 2025-26	BOS 119 @ MIA 114	MIA +2.5	BOS W
Dec 19, 2025-26	MIA 116 @ BOS 129	BOS -7.5	BOS W
Apr 2, 2024-25	MIA 124 @ BOS 103	BOS -10.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 0, Celtics 2, even 3

HeatBetterCeltics

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

Even

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

HeatBetterCeltics

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

BOSBig

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIASmall

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

BOS4.0 #25

MIA		BOS
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.15 #6
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
34.1 #19	3-point %	35.5 #10
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
28.8 #3	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
8.3 #19	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Celtics