Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Heat
CHA	This season	MIA
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	2-4
1-6	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 115–110 · win probability MIA 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

CHA 1, MIA 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, MIA 72.3%

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, MIA 15.4%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, MIA 27.3. Allowed: CHA 28.4, MIA 23.2

MIASmall

MIA offense vs CHA defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, CHA 1-2 away

MIASmall

CHA offense vs MIA defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Even

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 50.8% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CHA away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs ORL	L90–121LU
Dec 31	vs SA	L102–115LU
Jan 2	vs CLE	L113–118WO

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	@ DAL	L109–113LU
Dec 31	@ OKC	W122–120WO
Jan 2	@ NO	W123–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

CHA 6–16 MIAMIA leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 3 meetings · CHA 9-12-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	MIA 110 @ CHA 115	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Apr 14, 2025-26	MIA 126 @ CHA 127	CHA -5.5	MIA W
Mar 17, 2025-26	MIA 106 @ CHA 136	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Mar 6, 2025-26	MIA 128 @ CHA 120	CHA -7.5	MIA W
Nov 7, 2025-26	CHA 108 @ MIA 126	MIA -7.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, Heat 3, even 1

HornetsBetterHeat

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

MIASmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

MIASmall

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

HornetsBetterHeat

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

MIASmall

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

MIA5.0 #13

CHA		MIA
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	118.3 #9
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.11 #14
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
29.6 #28	3-point %	34.1 #19
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
21.6 #30	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
7.1 #25	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Heat