Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Cavaliers
WSH	This season	CLE
3-3	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 122–111 · win probability CLE 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

WSH 1, CLE 5 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs WSH defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, CLE 73.9%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 37.6% and 43.6% of their shots

CLESmall

WSH offense vs CLE defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, CLE 28.9. Allowed: WSH 21.8, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, CLE 14.1%

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	@ TOR	L102–112LU
Jan 1	vs SA	L113–124WU
Jan 3	vs LAC	L106–110WU

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 28	@ BOS	L98–109LU
Dec 31	vs LAC	W124–91WU
Jan 2	@ CHA	W118–113LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

WSH 2–18 CLECLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 17 meetings · WSH 7-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	WSH 111 @ CLE 121	CLE -9.5	CLE W
Apr 12, 2025-26	WSH 117 @ CLE 130	CLE -10.5	CLE W
Feb 11, 2025-26	WSH 113 @ CLE 138	CLE -17.5	CLE W
Dec 12, 2025-26	CLE 130 @ WSH 126	WSH +16.5	WSH W
Nov 7, 2025-26	CLE 148 @ WSH 115	WSH +13.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Cavaliers 2, even 3

WizardsBetterCavaliers

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

CLESmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

Even

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

WizardsBetterCavaliers

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

CLESmall

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

CLE6.3 #6

WSH		CLE
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.14 #7
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
29.3 #29	3-point %	37.0 #8
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
24.5 #24	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
7.2 #24	Steals per game	7.8 #22
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Cavaliers