Madison Square Garden · at Knicks
Line
NY -1.5no move
NY -1.5no moveTotal229.5no move
 SA | This season | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 1-5 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 111–109 · win probability SA 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
NY -1.5
no move since the open
Total
229.5
model 220.0 · Under by 9.5
Model edge
SA by 3
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it
SA 3, NY 3 · 2026-27 so far
SABigNY offense vs SA defense
Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, NY 15.2%. Forced: SA 15.7%, NY 13.2%
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points
NYSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, NY 78.7%
SASmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1
NYSmallThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 39.0% and 43.2% of their shots
NYSmallHome court
NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, SA 2-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, NY 24.5. Allowed: SA 21.7, NY 25.9
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SA offense vs NY defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of under 3 | 474 | 51% | 47% | 44% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 276 | 55% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 225 to 229.5 | 827 | 68% | 50% | 52% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketNY -1.5
ModelSA -1.3
Model edgeSA +2.8
Total
Market229.5
Model220.0
Model edgeUnder 9.5
Projected score
SA 110.6 · NY 109.3
Win probability
SA 54%
1st half
Spread
SA -0.9
Total
110.5
Projected score
SA 55.7 · NY 54.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenNY -1.5
no move
NowNY -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open229.5
no move
Now229.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened NY -1.5 · unchangedmodel SA -1.5
model SA -1.5
Opened 229.5 · unchangedmodel 220
model 220
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| NYlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 16 since 2021-22
SA 5–11 NYNY leads · 16 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 2 meetings · SA 7-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2025-26 | NY 94 @ SA 90 | SA -5.5 | NY W |
| Jun 10, 2025-26 | SA 106 @ NY 107 | NY -2.5 | SA W |
| Jun 8, 2025-26 | SA 115 @ NY 111 | NY -1.5 | SA W |
| Jun 5, 2025-26 | NY 105 @ SA 104 | SA -6.5 | NY W |
| Jun 3, 2025-26 | NY 105 @ SA 95 | SA -4.5 | NY W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Knicks
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
PHI
PHIL 100-106
−10.5
23
@
BOS
BOSL 103-107
−1.5
25
vs
ORL
ORLL 102-111
−15.5
27
vs
DET
DETW 111-97
+9.5
28
@
CHI
CHIW 133-127
−1.5
30
@PHI
PHIL 93-98
−2.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsPHI
PHIL 100-106
−25.5
23
@BOS
BOSL 103-107
−10.5
25
vsORL
ORLL 102-111
−11.5
27
vsDET
DETW 111-97
−12.5
28
@CHI
CHIW 133-127
+26.5
30
@PHI
PHIL 93-98
−33.5
over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Spurs 1, Knicks 1, even 3
SpursBetterKnicks
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
=Even
G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 86
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
→NYBig
G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 91
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
=Even
G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 75
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
=Even
F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 73
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
←SASmall
C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast
Score 80
SpursBetterKnicks
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
=Even
NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
←SABig
NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
=Even
Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench+5.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
KnicksGuards
J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min
Forwards
O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew
Centers
K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min
Out
J. AlvaradoOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12NY107.0 #27Points per possession
SA1.12 #10NY1.05 #24Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11NY101.0 #28Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16NY49.5 #273-point %
SA34.9 #17NY35.2 #133-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24NY43.2 #14Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24NY24.5 #23Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2NY15.2 #14Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16NY30.3 #6Assists per game
SA27.5 #9NY26.2 #18Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12NY107.7 #6Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6NY1.07 #12Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11NY53.1 #14Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23NY35.5 #18Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14NY13.2 #29Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7NY78.7 #1Steals per game
SA9.2 #10NY7.3 #23Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1NY4.0 #28| SA | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 107.0 #27 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.05 #24 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 101.0 #28 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #27 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 35.2 #13 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.2 #14 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #23 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 15.2 #14 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.3 #6 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 26.2 #18 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 107.7 #6 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.07 #12 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 53.1 #14 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.5 #18 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 13.2 #29 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 78.7 #1 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 7.3 #23 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 4.0 #28 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Knicks
2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ 76ers93–98
- W@ Bulls133–127
- Wvs Pistons111–97
- Lvs Magic102–111
- L@ Celtics103–107
A week or more of rest.