Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 25, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

LineOKC -4.5no move

Total234.5no move

Season records: Thunder and Timberwolves
OKC	This season	MIN
4-2	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	6-1
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 116–108 · win probability MIN 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

OKC -4.5

no move since the open

Total

234.5

model 223.7 · Under by 11

Model edge

MIN by 12

a gap this big often means news the model can’t see

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

OKC 1, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 35.8% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINBig

OKC offense vs MIN defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, MIN 75.4%

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, MIN 15.6%

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, MIN 26.1. Allowed: OKC 23.4, MIN 28.9

Even

MIN offense vs OKC defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	630	64%	50%	51%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	3-2
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	4-0

Venue/role: OKC away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ HOU	L98–119LU
Dec 29	vs MIL	L93–110LU
Dec 31	vs MIA	L120–122LO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ GS	L114–119LO
Dec 28	@ DEN	W110–98
Dec 31	vs DEN	W110–98

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

OKC 11–15 MINMIN leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · OKC 11-15 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 15, 2025-26	MIN 103 @ OKC 116	OKC -8.5	OKC W
Jan 29, 2025-26	OKC 111 @ MIN 123	MIN +5.5	MIN W
Dec 19, 2025-26	OKC 107 @ MIN 112	MIN +5.5	MIN W
Nov 26, 2025-26	MIN 105 @ OKC 113	OKC -10.5	MIN W
May 28, 2024-25	MIN 94 @ OKC 124	OKC -8.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 1, Timberwolves 2, even 2

ThunderBetterTimberwolves

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

ThunderBetterTimberwolves

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

MINSmall

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

Even

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

MIN4.3 #20

OKC		MIN
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.13 #8
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
30.9 #26	3-point %	37.6 #6
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
21.7 #29	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.0 #13
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Timberwolves